Weather factors
What this season's weather is doing to the color
Daylight sets the calendar. Weather shifts the date a few days and decides how vivid it gets.
Season-wide timing shift
-0.1 days
Essentially on the historical schedule.
Expected vibrancy
68/100
A normal year - good color, not a legendary one.
Cold nights logged
0
Average nights below 45°F since September 1 across all tracked elevations.
| Location | Cold nights | Frost nights | Mean high | Water balance | Air dryness | Sun | Drought | Shift | Vibrancy | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwohi 6,643 ft | 1 | 0 | 62°F | +0.5″ | 0.39 kPa | Bright | D1 | -0.1d | 68 | Oct 4 |
| LeConte 6,593 ft | 1 | 0 | 62°F | +3.1″ | 0.42 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Oct 5 |
| Newfound Gap 5,046 ft | 0 | 0 | 68°F | +0.7″ | 0.50 kPa | Bright | D1 | -0.1d | 68 | Oct 11 |
| Chimney Tops 3,400 ft | 0 | 0 | 75°F | +1.8″ | 0.86 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Oct 19 |
| Cataloochee 2,650 ft | 0 | 0 | 82°F | -0.4″ | 1.49 kPa | Bright | D1 | -3.0d | 68 | Oct 21 |
| Roaring Fork 2,600 ft | 0 | 0 | 80°F | +9.4″ | 1.42 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Oct 26 |
| Foothills Pkwy 2,100 ft | 0 | 0 | 85°F | -2.5″ | 1.79 kPa | Bright | None | +2.7d | 68 | Oct 31 |
| Cades Cove 1,800 ft | 0 | 0 | 84°F | -0.9″ | 1.73 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Oct 30 |
| Little River 1,700 ft | 0 | 0 | 85°F | -1.2″ | 1.81 kPa | Bright | None | +0.1d | 68 | Oct 29 |
| Wears Valley 1,400 ft | 0 | 0 | 86°F | +1.8″ | 1.87 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Nov 1 |
| Gatlinburg 1,289 ft | 0 | 0 | 87°F | +4.6″ | 1.94 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Nov 3 |
| Townsend 1,050 ft | 0 | 0 | 88°F | +0.5″ | 2.09 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Nov 2 |
| Pigeon Forge 1,010 ft | 0 | 0 | 87°F | +7.1″ | 1.84 kPa | Bright | None | -0.1d | 68 | Nov 5 |
Kuwohi (Clingmans Dome)
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Mount LeConte
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Newfound Gap
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Chimney Tops Overlooks
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Cataloochee Valley
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 3.0 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Official and observed signals
Beyond our own model: National Weather Service warnings that can strip a ridge overnight, the federal drought call for each county, and what the Sentinel-2 satellite measured on the canopy itself.
US Drought Monitor
- Swain CountyD1 moderate droughtD0 98% · D1 72%
- Sevier CountyNo droughtD0 23% · D1 8%
- Blount CountyNo droughtD0 12% · D1 0%
- Haywood CountyD1 moderate droughtD0 100% · D1 70%
Published weekly by NOAA, USDA and the National Drought Mitigation Center. When a county is in drought the model expects an earlier, faster, browner turn.
Satellite canopy readings
| Location | Seen | NDVI | Canopy index | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little River | Aug 21 | 0.59 | 43/100 | Not enough scenes |
| Wears Valley | Aug 23 | 0.47 | 56/100 | Not enough scenes |
| Townsend | Aug 23 | 0.56 | 42/100 | Not enough scenes |
| Cades Cove | Aug 23 | 0.59 | 37/100 | Not enough scenes |
| Cataloochee | Aug 23 | 0.57 | 45/100 | Not enough scenes |
| Newfound Gap | Aug 21 | 0.07 | 94/100 | Not enough scenes |
| LeConte | Aug 21 | 0.39 | 76/100 | Not enough scenes |
| Roaring Fork | Aug 21 | 0.61 | 40/100 | Not enough scenes |
Sentinel-2 at 10 m, via the Microsoft Planetary Computer. NDVI falls and the green-red index crosses zero as chlorophyll breaks down, so these readings pull today's color index toward what the canopy actually looks like from orbit. With three or more clear passes we also fit the trend: a canopy turning faster than the usual pace pulls the predicted peak earlier, a stalled one pushes it later.
Ground truth
What the cameras actually see
Public park webcams are pulled three times a day and scored for canopy color. When a fresh, readable frame disagrees with the model, the forecast for that area is nudged toward the camera.
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