Little River Gorge
Deep, shaded, and full of water. Color reflects off pools here in a way it does not anywhere else in the park, and overcast days are an advantage rather than a problem.
When do the leaves peak at Little River Gorge?
Little River Gorge sits at 1,700 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Thursday, October 29, with a likely window of Oct 25 to Nov 3. The long-run median peak here is Oct 29, so conditions are running on schedule. Today the canopy reads 20/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 16 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 35 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
20/100
Only a few early turners
Summer green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Oct 29
Window Oct 25 to Nov 3
Historical median
Oct 29
-0.3 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
21/100 · Dull
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Little River Gorge is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -0.3d
- Daytime temperature
- +5.1°F
- Rainfall
- 10% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
0.5 in observed · 4.6 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 2.04 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 27. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Scored camera frame today
- Timing corrected against 9 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysLow risk around Oct 11, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- High wind warning: ridges can strip in hours
- Wind advisory: exposed canopy will thin
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 20/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2023Nov 2
- 2024Oct 30
- 2025Oct 26
- 2026Oct 29
What turns here
- Hemlock
- Sycamore
- Red maple
- Beech
Weather notes
- Running 5.1°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- Rainfall is running 5.9" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 2.2 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days later than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
Summer greenHike
Laurel Falls
2.6 miles paved round trip, the most accessible waterfall in the park.
Photography
Meigs Falls pull-off
Roadside waterfall visible from the car, framed by color in late October.
Scenic drive
Elkmont spur
Historic cabin district under heavy hardwood canopy.