Cades Cove

1,800 ft 75 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 5/5

A broad valley ringed by mountains, so you get late golden hardwood in the fields with an already-turned ridge line behind it. Wildlife is at its most active in late October.

When do the leaves peak at Cades Cove?

Cades Cove sits at 1,800 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Friday, October 30, with a likely window of Oct 26 to Nov 4. The long-run median peak here is Oct 30, so conditions are running on schedule. Today the canopy reads 26/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 17 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 75 minutes.

Color today · Oct 9

26/100

Patchy color starting

Summer green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Oct 30

Window Oct 26 to Nov 4

Historical median

Oct 30

-0.4 day weather shift

Peak probability today

97% model confidence · Very confident

Expected vibrancy

22/100 · Dull

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Cades Cove is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift: -0.4d
Daytime temperature: +5.2°F
Rainfall: 32% of normal
Cold nights logged: 0

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

Elevated risk around Oct 11, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.

Oct 9Oct 22

High wind warning: ridges can strip in hours
Wind advisory: exposed canopy will thin

Next three weeks here

Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.

Friday, October 9

Color 26/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak

Summer green

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

2019
Nov 2
2020
Oct 28
2021
Nov 3
2022
Oct 29
2023
Nov 4
2024
Oct 31
2025
Oct 27
2026
Oct 30

What turns here

Sugar maple
White oak
Black gum
Hickory
Sycamore

Weather notes

Running 5.2°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
Rainfall is running 4.6" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 2.0 days later.
Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Summer green

Scenic drive

Cades Cove Loop Road

11 miles one-way. Peak-season Saturdays can take four hours: enter before 8am or after 4pm.

Overlook

Hyatt Lane

Cross-cut gravel lane with the classic fog-in-the-field-at-sunrise shot.

Hike

Abrams Falls

5 miles round trip along a hemlock-lined creek, color holds late.

Attraction

Cable Mill Historic Area

Working grist mill under big maples; interpretive rangers on site through October.

Plan a trip around this Alert me before peak here