Cades Cove

1,800 ft 75 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 5/5

A broad valley ringed by mountains, so you get late golden hardwood in the fields with an already-turned ridge line behind it. Wildlife is at its most active in late October.

Color today · Aug 25

10/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Oct 30

Window Oct 26 – Nov 4

Historical median

Oct 30

-0.1 day weather shift

Peak probability today

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Cades Cove is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift: -0.1d
Daytime temperature: +2.1°F
Rainfall: 82% of normal
Cold nights logged: 0

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 29

Aug 30

Aug 31

Sep 1

Sep 2

Sep 3

Sep 4

Sep 5

Sep 6

Sep 7

Sep 8

Sep 9

Sep 10

Sep 11

Sep 12

Sep 13

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

2019
Nov 2
2020
Oct 28
2021
Nov 3
2022
Oct 29
2023
Nov 4
2024
Oct 31
2025
Oct 27
2026
Oct 30

What turns here

Sugar maple
White oak
Black gum
Hickory
Sycamore

Weather notes

The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Scenic drive

Cades Cove Loop Road

11 miles one-way. Peak-season Saturdays can take four hours - enter before 8am or after 4pm.

Overlook

Hyatt Lane

Cross-cut gravel lane with the classic fog-in-the-field-at-sunrise shot.

Hike

Abrams Falls

5 miles round trip along a hemlock-lined creek, color holds late.

Attraction

Cable Mill Historic Area

Working grist mill under big maples; interpretive rangers on site through October.

Plan a trip around this Alert me before peak here