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Newfound Gap

5,046 ft 40 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 5/5

The state-line gap on US-441. The single best place to watch the color line move - you drive through three seasons in thirty minutes getting here from Gatlinburg.

Color today · Aug 25

10/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Oct 11

Window Oct 7 – Oct 16

Historical median

Oct 11

-0.1 day weather shift

Peak probability today

0%

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Newfound Gap is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
-0.1d

Peak pulled earlier

Daytime temperature
-2.4°F

Cooler than normal here

Rainfall
88% of normal

5.1 in observed · 5.8 in typical

Cold nights logged
0

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 0.50 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 4 days old
  • Current official drought classification
  • Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

10

Aug 25

0

Aug 26

0

Aug 27

0

Aug 28

0

Aug 29

0

Aug 30

0

Aug 31

0

Sep 1

0

Sep 2

1

Sep 3

1

Sep 4

1

Sep 5

1

Sep 6

1

Sep 7

1

Sep 8

2

Sep 9

2

Sep 10

3

Sep 11

3

Sep 12

4

Sep 13

5

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2019
    Oct 13
  • 2020
    Oct 9
  • 2021
    Oct 15
  • 2022
    Oct 10
  • 2023
    Oct 16
  • 2024
    Oct 12
  • 2025
    Oct 9
  • 2026
    Oct 11

What turns here

  • Yellow birch
  • American beech
  • Mountain maple
  • Northern red oak

Weather notes

  • The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Scenic drive

Newfound Gap Road (US-441)

The signature Smokies drive: 1,300 ft to 5,046 ft, every color stage on one road.

Overlook

Morton Overlook

West-facing, the best sunset overlook in the park during peak week.

Hike

Appalachian Trail to Charlies Bunion

8 miles round trip along the crest with color in both states.

Photography

Rockefeller Memorial

Stone terrace framing the ridge line, good in flat overcast light.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here