Skip to main content
Park average 40/100 · patchy

Best color: Mount LeConte, 87/100

See this spot
← Color map

Newfound Gap

5,046 ft 40 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 5/5

The state-line gap on US-441. The single best place to watch the color line move: you drive through three seasons in thirty minutes getting here from Gatlinburg.

When do the leaves peak at Newfound Gap?

Newfound Gap sits at 5,046 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Sunday, October 11, with a likely window of Oct 7 to Oct 16. The long-run median peak here is Oct 11, so conditions are running on schedule. Today the canopy reads 61/100 (Peak), with a 77% chance you are inside the peak window. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 40 minutes.

Color today · Oct 9

61/100

Color on about half the trees

Peak

Full color across the canopy. This is the window everyone plans around.

Predicted peak

Oct 11

Window Oct 7 to Oct 16

Historical median

Oct 11

+0.2 day weather shift

Peak probability today

77%

97% model confidence · Very confident

Expected vibrancy

70/100 · Vivid

5 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Newfound Gap is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
+0.2d

Peak pushed later

Daytime temperature
-0.1°F

Close to normal

Rainfall
119% of normal

6.9 in observed · 5.8 in typical

Cold nights logged
5

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 0.63 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Oct 27. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
  • Scored camera frame today
  • Current official drought classification
  • Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

High risk around Oct 18, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.

Oct 9Oct 22
  • Hard freeze forecast (21°F low)

Next three weeks here

Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.

Friday, October 9

Color 61/100 · Peak · 77% chance of peak

Peak

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2019
    Oct 13
  • 2020
    Oct 9
  • 2021
    Oct 15
  • 2022
    Oct 10
  • 2023
    Oct 16
  • 2024
    Oct 12
  • 2025
    Oct 9
  • 2026
    Oct 11

What turns here

  • Yellow birch
  • American beech
  • Mountain maple
  • Northern red oak

Weather notes

  • Temperatures are close to seasonal normal.
  • 5 nights below 45°F so far. Cool nights trap sugars in the leaf and deepen reds.
  • The US Drought Monitor has this county at D1. Drought-stressed trees turn early and drop fast, with more brown in the canopy.
  • Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
  • Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 2.3 days later.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Peak

Scenic drive

Newfound Gap Road (US-441)

The signature Smokies drive: 1,300 ft to 5,046 ft, every color stage on one road.

Overlook

Morton Overlook

West-facing, the best sunset overlook in the park during peak week.

Hike

Appalachian Trail to Charlies Bunion

8 miles round trip along the crest with color in both states.

Photography

Rockefeller Memorial

Stone terrace framing the ridge line, good in flat overcast light.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here