Gatlinburg
Basecamp at the park boundary. Town color runs latest of anywhere in the region, which means an early-November trip still has a show even after the high country is bare.
When do the leaves peak at Gatlinburg?
Gatlinburg sits at 1,289 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Friday, November 6, with a likely window of Nov 2 to Nov 11. The long-run median peak here is Nov 3, so conditions are running 3 days late. Today the canopy reads 32/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 24 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 0 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
32/100
Patchy color starting
Summer green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Nov 6
Window Nov 2 to Nov 11
Historical median
Nov 3
+3.2 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
63/100 · Solid color
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Gatlinburg is running 3.2 days late compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- +3.2d
- Daytime temperature
- +3.6°F
- Rainfall
- 117% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pushed later
Warmer than normal here
5.7 in observed · 4.9 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.82 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysElevated risk around Oct 10, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- High wind warning: ridges can strip in hours
- Wind advisory: exposed canopy will thin
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 32/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2021Nov 6
- 2022Nov 1
- 2023Nov 7
- 2024Nov 4
- 2025Oct 31
- 2026Nov 6
What turns here
- Red maple
- Sugar maple
- Sycamore
- Dogwood
- Tulip poplar
Weather notes
- Running 3.6°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 2.3 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
Summer greenAttraction
Gatlinburg SkyLift Park
Rides above the town canopy; the SkyBridge is the easiest big view in the region.
Attraction
Anakeesta
Chondola up to ridge-level treetop walks: good on a rainy afternoon.
Where to stay
Downtown & Ski Mountain Road
Walkable base for a park-heavy trip; book 3+ months ahead for peak October weekends.
Hike
Gatlinburg Trail
Flat 3.8 miles along the river from town into the park, dog-friendly.