Townsend & Little River
The quiet side. Riverside color along Little River Road with a fraction of the Gatlinburg traffic, and the shortest approach to Cades Cove.
When do the leaves peak at Townsend & Little River?
Townsend & Little River sits at 1,050 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Monday, November 2, with a likely window of Oct 29 to Nov 7. The long-run median peak here is Nov 2, so conditions are running on schedule. Today the canopy reads 31/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 20 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 45 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
31/100
Patchy color starting
Summer green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Nov 2
Window Oct 29 to Nov 7
Historical median
Nov 2
+0.1 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
44/100 · Muted
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Townsend & Little River is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- +0.1d
- Daytime temperature
- +5.2°F
- Rainfall
- 95% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pushed later
Warmer than normal here
4.0 in observed · 4.2 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 2.31 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysElevated risk around Oct 11, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- High wind warning: ridges can strip in hours
- Wind advisory: exposed canopy will thin
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 31/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2022Oct 31
- 2023Nov 6
- 2024Nov 3
- 2025Oct 30
- 2026Nov 2
What turns here
- Sycamore
- Red maple
- River birch
- Hemlock
Weather notes
- Running 5.2°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- Rainfall is running 2.2" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 1.4 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
Summer greenScenic drive
Little River Road
18 miles of river-hugging pavement between Townsend and Sugarlands: endless water-and-color pull-offs.
Photography
The Sinks
Waterfall with maples overhanging; long exposures work all day here.
Where to stay
Townsend cabins
Best choice if your trip is Cades Cove focused and you want early-morning loop access.