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Wears Valley

1,400 ft 30 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 2/5

A pastoral valley between Pigeon Forge and Townsend with the mountain wall as a backdrop. Underrated for late-season foreground color with peak ridges behind.

Color today · Aug 25

15/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Nov 1

Window Oct 28 – Nov 6

Historical median

Nov 1

-0.1 day weather shift

Peak probability today

0%

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Wears Valley is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
-0.1d

Peak pulled earlier

Daytime temperature
+1.4°F

Warmer than normal here

Rainfall
148% of normal

7.3 in observed · 5.0 in typical

Cold nights logged
0

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.87 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
  • Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

15

Aug 25

0

Aug 26

0

Aug 27

0

Aug 28

0

Aug 29

0

Aug 30

0

Aug 31

0

Sep 1

0

Sep 2

0

Sep 3

0

Sep 4

0

Sep 5

0

Sep 6

0

Sep 7

0

Sep 8

0

Sep 9

0

Sep 10

0

Sep 11

0

Sep 12

0

Sep 13

0

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2023
    Nov 5
  • 2024
    Nov 2
  • 2025
    Oct 29
  • 2026
    Nov 1

What turns here

  • Red maple
  • Sourwood
  • Oak
  • Hickory

Weather notes

  • The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Scenic drive

Wears Valley Road

Farm fields, barns, and the Foothills Parkway ramp at the west end.

Photography

Metcalf Bottoms area

River, historic schoolhouse, and heavy maple cover.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here