Wears Valley
A pastoral valley between Pigeon Forge and Townsend with the mountain wall as a backdrop. Underrated for late-season foreground color with peak ridges behind.
When do the leaves peak at Wears Valley?
Wears Valley sits at 1,400 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Saturday, October 31, with a likely window of Oct 27 to Nov 5. The long-run median peak here is Nov 1, so conditions are running 1 day early. Today the canopy reads 32/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 18 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 30 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
32/100
Patchy color starting
Summer green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Oct 31
Window Oct 27 to Nov 5
Historical median
Nov 1
-1.4 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
27/100 · Dull
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Wears Valley is running 1.4 day early compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -1.4d
- Daytime temperature
- +4.2°F
- Rainfall
- 60% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
2.7 in observed · 4.6 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 2.04 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysElevated risk around Oct 11, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- High wind warning: ridges can strip in hours
- Wind advisory: exposed canopy will thin
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 32/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2023Nov 5
- 2024Nov 2
- 2025Oct 29
- 2026Oct 31
What turns here
- Red maple
- Sourwood
- Oak
- Hickory
Weather notes
- Running 4.2°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- Rainfall is running 3.5" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 1.8 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
Summer greenScenic drive
Wears Valley Road
Farm fields, barns, and the Foothills Parkway ramp at the west end.
Photography
Metcalf Bottoms area
River, historic schoolhouse, and heavy maple cover.