Cataloochee Valley
The far side of the park and the crowd relief valve. Elk bugle through late October in fields ringed by peak-color slopes, with a fraction of Cades Cove traffic.
When do the leaves peak at Cataloochee Valley?
Cataloochee Valley sits at 2,650 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Friday, October 23, with a likely window of Oct 19 to Oct 28. The long-run median peak here is Oct 24, so conditions are running 1 day early. Today the canopy reads 33/100 (Patchy), and the peak window opens in 10 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 110 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
33/100
Patchy color starting
Patchy
Color is arriving in patches: good, not yet the main event.
Predicted peak
Oct 23
Window Oct 19 to Oct 28
Historical median
Oct 24
-1.0 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
60/100 · Solid color
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Cataloochee Valley is running 1.0 day early compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -1.0d
- Daytime temperature
- +3.9°F
- Rainfall
- 23% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
1.2 in observed · 5.2 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.64 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 27. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Scored camera frame today
- Current official drought classification
- Timing corrected against 2 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysLow risk around Oct 10, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- Heavy rain (2.4 in) knocks tired leaves loose
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 33/100 · Patchy · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2022Oct 22
- 2023Oct 28
- 2024Oct 25
- 2025Oct 21
- 2026Oct 23
What turns here
- Sugar maple
- Red maple
- Tulip poplar
- Oak
Weather notes
- Running 3.9°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- The US Drought Monitor has this county at D1. Drought-stressed trees turn early and drop fast, with more brown in the canopy.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 1.7 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 3.0 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
PatchyScenic drive
Cove Creek Road
Gravel switchbacks in, paved valley floor. Not for anxious drivers, worth every minute.
Attraction
Elk at dawn and dusk
Rut peaks late September to mid-October. Stay 50 yards back.
Hike
Boogerman Loop
7.4 miles through old-growth poplar: enormous trunks, golden canopy.