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Cataloochee Valley

2,650 ft 110 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 2/5

The far side of the park and the crowd relief valve. Elk bugle through late October in fields ringed by peak-color slopes, with a fraction of Cades Cove traffic.

Color today · Aug 25

10/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Oct 21

Window Oct 17 – Oct 26

Historical median

Oct 24

-3.0 day weather shift

Peak probability today

0%

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Cataloochee Valley is running 3.0 days early compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
-3.0d

Peak pulled earlier

Daytime temperature
+1.2°F

Warmer than normal here

Rainfall
125% of normal

5.1 in observed · 4.1 in typical

Cold nights logged
0

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.49 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
  • Current official drought classification
  • Timing corrected against 2 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

10

Aug 25

0

Aug 26

0

Aug 27

0

Aug 28

0

Aug 29

0

Aug 30

0

Aug 31

0

Sep 1

0

Sep 2

0

Sep 3

0

Sep 4

0

Sep 5

0

Sep 6

0

Sep 7

0

Sep 8

0

Sep 9

0

Sep 10

0

Sep 11

0

Sep 12

1

Sep 13

1

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2022
    Oct 22
  • 2023
    Oct 28
  • 2024
    Oct 25
  • 2025
    Oct 21
  • 2026
    Oct 21

What turns here

  • Sugar maple
  • Red maple
  • Tulip poplar
  • Oak

Weather notes

  • The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 3.0 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Scenic drive

Cove Creek Road

Gravel switchbacks in, paved valley floor. Not for anxious drivers, worth every minute.

Attraction

Elk at dawn and dusk

Rut peaks late September to mid-October. Stay 50 yards back.

Hike

Boogerman Loop

7.4 miles through old-growth poplar - enormous trunks, golden canopy.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here