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Chimney Tops Overlooks

3,400 ft 20 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 4/5

The mid-slope band on Newfound Gap Road, and the timing sweet spot in the third week of October when both the ridge above and the cove below have color at once.

Color today · Aug 25

4/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Oct 19

Window Oct 15 – Oct 24

Historical median

Oct 19

-0.1 day weather shift

Peak probability today

0%

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Chimney Tops Overlooks is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
-0.1d

Peak pulled earlier

Daytime temperature
-2.0°F

Cooler than normal here

Rainfall
107% of normal

6.6 in observed · 6.2 in typical

Cold nights logged
0

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 0.86 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 4 days old
  • Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

4

Aug 25

0

Aug 26

0

Aug 27

0

Aug 28

0

Aug 29

0

Aug 30

0

Aug 31

0

Sep 1

0

Sep 2

0

Sep 3

0

Sep 4

0

Sep 5

0

Sep 6

0

Sep 7

0

Sep 8

0

Sep 9

0

Sep 10

1

Sep 11

1

Sep 12

1

Sep 13

1

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2022
    Oct 17
  • 2023
    Oct 23
  • 2024
    Oct 20
  • 2025
    Oct 16
  • 2026
    Oct 19

What turns here

  • Sugar maple
  • Yellow birch
  • Beech
  • Silverbell

Weather notes

  • The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Overlook

Chimney Tops Overlook

Roadside pull-off looking at the twin rock knobs above a maple slope.

Hike

Chimney Tops Trail

3.3 miles round trip, steep, ends at an observation deck below the pinnacles.

Photography

Walker Camp Prong pull-offs

Boulder-filled stream with overhanging color - the classic Smokies water shot.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here