Chimney Tops Overlooks
The mid-slope band on Newfound Gap Road, and the timing sweet spot in the third week of October when both the ridge above and the cove below have color at once.
When do the leaves peak at Chimney Tops Overlooks?
Chimney Tops Overlooks sits at 3,400 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Saturday, October 17, with a likely window of Oct 13 to Oct 22. The long-run median peak here is Oct 19, so conditions are running 2 day early. Today the canopy reads 58/100 (Patchy), and the peak window opens in 4 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 20 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
58/100
Color on about half the trees
Patchy
Color is arriving in patches: good, not yet the main event.
Predicted peak
Oct 17
Window Oct 13 to Oct 22
Historical median
Oct 19
-2.0 day weather shift
Peak probability today
2%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
44/100 · Muted
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Chimney Tops Overlooks is running 2.0 days early compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -2.0d
- Daytime temperature
- +0.7°F
- Rainfall
- 53% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
2.8 in observed · 5.3 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.00 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysHigh risk around Oct 10, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- High wind warning: ridges can strip in hours
- Wind advisory: exposed canopy will thin
- Heavy rain (1.5 in) knocks tired leaves loose
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 58/100 · Patchy · 2% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2022Oct 17
- 2023Oct 23
- 2024Oct 20
- 2025Oct 16
- 2026Oct 17
What turns here
- Sugar maple
- Yellow birch
- Beech
- Silverbell
Weather notes
- Temperatures are close to seasonal normal.
- Rainfall is running 2.9" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 1.7 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
PatchyOverlook
Chimney Tops Overlook
Roadside pull-off looking at the twin rock knobs above a maple slope.
Hike
Chimney Tops Trail
3.3 miles round trip, steep, ends at an observation deck below the pinnacles.
Photography
Walker Camp Prong pull-offs
Boulder-filled stream with overhanging color: the classic Smokies water shot.