Pigeon Forge
Lowest elevation in the region and the last to turn. Best used as a value basecamp with family attractions when the high country is already past peak.
When do the leaves peak at Pigeon Forge?
Pigeon Forge sits at 1,010 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Tuesday, November 3, with a likely window of Oct 30 to Nov 8. The long-run median peak here is Nov 5, so conditions are running 2 days early. Today the canopy reads 34/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 21 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 20 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
34/100
Patchy color starting
Summer green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Nov 3
Window Oct 30 to Nov 8
Historical median
Nov 5
-2.2 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
27/100 · Dull
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Pigeon Forge is running 2.2 days early compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -2.2d
- Daytime temperature
- +2.9°F
- Rainfall
- 49% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
2.1 in observed · 4.3 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.95 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysNo warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 34/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2022Nov 3
- 2023Nov 9
- 2024Nov 6
- 2025Nov 2
- 2026Nov 3
What turns here
- Red maple
- Bradford pear
- Oak
- Sweetgum
Weather notes
- Running 2.9°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- Rainfall is running 3.8" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 2.2 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
Summer greenAttraction
Dollywood Harvest Festival
Runs through late October into November: evenings are lit and far less crowded.
Scenic drive
Wears Valley Road to the Parkway
The scenic way out of town toward Foothills Parkway color.
Where to stay
Parkway & Teaster Lane
Most rooms, best rates, 20 minutes to the park entrance.