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Pigeon Forge

1,010 ft 20 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 5/5

Lowest elevation in the region and the last to turn. Best used as a value basecamp with family attractions when the high country is already past peak.

Color today · Aug 25

0/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Nov 5

Window Nov 1 – Nov 10

Historical median

Nov 5

-0.1 day weather shift

Peak probability today

0%

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Pigeon Forge is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
-0.1d

Peak pulled earlier

Daytime temperature
+0.7°F

Warmer than normal here

Rainfall
268% of normal

12.6 in observed · 4.7 in typical

Cold nights logged
0

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.84 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 8. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 12 days old
  • Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

0

Aug 25

0

Aug 26

0

Aug 27

0

Aug 28

0

Aug 29

0

Aug 30

0

Aug 31

0

Sep 1

0

Sep 2

0

Sep 3

0

Sep 4

0

Sep 5

0

Sep 6

0

Sep 7

0

Sep 8

0

Sep 9

0

Sep 10

0

Sep 11

0

Sep 12

0

Sep 13

0

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2022
    Nov 3
  • 2023
    Nov 9
  • 2024
    Nov 6
  • 2025
    Nov 2
  • 2026
    Nov 5

What turns here

  • Red maple
  • Bradford pear
  • Oak
  • Sweetgum

Weather notes

  • The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Attraction

Dollywood Harvest Festival

Runs through late October into November - evenings are lit and far less crowded.

Scenic drive

Wears Valley Road to the Parkway

The scenic way out of town toward Foothills Parkway color.

Where to stay

Parkway & Teaster Lane

Most rooms, best rates, 20 minutes to the park entrance.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here