Mount LeConte
Hike-in only. The trails climbing LeConte pass through every forest type in the park, so a single day on Alum Cave gets you green cove hardwood, screaming orange mid-slope maple, and bare high-country birch.
When do the leaves peak at Mount LeConte?
Mount LeConte sits at 6,593 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Monday, October 5, with a likely window of Oct 1 to Oct 10. The long-run median peak here is Oct 5, so conditions are running on schedule. Today the canopy reads 87/100 (Peak), with a 36% chance you are inside the peak window. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 25 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
87/100
Full color across the canopy
Peak
Full color across the canopy. This is the window everyone plans around.
Predicted peak
Oct 5
Window Oct 1 to Oct 10
Historical median
Oct 5
+0.4 day weather shift
Peak probability today
36%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
73/100 · Vivid
12 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Mount LeConte is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- +0.4d
- Daytime temperature
- -0.9°F
- Rainfall
- 92% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 12
Peak pushed later
Cooler than normal here
5.2 in observed · 5.6 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 0.53 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysElevated risk around Oct 10, with color on the ground rather than on the trees.
- Heavy rain (1.7 in) knocks tired leaves loose
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 87/100 · Peak · 36% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2021Oct 9
- 2022Oct 4
- 2023Oct 10
- 2024Oct 6
- 2025Oct 3
- 2026Oct 5
What turns here
- Yellow birch
- Mountain ash
- Red spruce (evergreen)
Weather notes
- Temperatures are close to seasonal normal.
- 12 nights below 45°F so far. Cool nights trap sugars in the leaf and deepen reds.
- Sunnier than usual, which builds the red pigments that make a vivid season.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 1.8 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
PeakHike
Alum Cave Trail
11 miles round trip, the color-band tour of the park. Arch Rock and Inspiration Point are the photo stops.
Hike
Rainbow Falls Trail
Longer, quieter, and the lower half holds color a week after the summit drops.
Where to stay
LeConte Lodge
Books a year ahead, but cancellations open up. Sunrise from Myrtle Point during peak is the trip of a lifetime.