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Live fall color feed
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Mount LeConte

6,593 ft 25 min from GatlinburgCrowd level 4/5

Hike-in only. The trails climbing LeConte pass through every forest type in the park, so a single day on Alum Cave gets you green cove hardwood, screaming orange mid-slope maple, and bare high-country birch.

Color today · Aug 25

8/100

Still green

Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.

Predicted peak

Oct 5

Window Oct 1 – Oct 10

Historical median

Oct 5

-0.1 day weather shift

Peak probability today

0%

78% model confidence

Expected vibrancy

68/100

1 cold nights, 0 frosts logged

This location vs. its own normal year

Mount LeConte is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.

Timing shift
-0.1d

Peak pulled earlier

Daytime temperature
-3.1°F

Cooler than normal here

Rainfall
128% of normal

7.2 in observed · 5.6 in typical

Cold nights logged
1

Nights below 45°F · air dryness 0.42 kPa

How far to trust this

Strong evidence

Forecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.

  • Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
  • Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 4 days old
  • Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons

Leaf-drop risk

Next 14 days

No warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.

Aug 25Sep 7

Next three weeks here

8

Aug 25

0

Aug 26

0

Aug 27

1

Aug 28

1

Aug 29

1

Aug 30

1

Aug 31

1

Sep 1

1

Sep 2

2

Sep 3

2

Sep 4

3

Sep 5

3

Sep 6

4

Sep 7

5

Sep 8

5

Sep 9

7

Sep 10

8

Sep 11

9

Sep 12

11

Sep 13

13

Sep 14

Peak dates, recent years

How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.

  • 2021
    Oct 9
  • 2022
    Oct 4
  • 2023
    Oct 10
  • 2024
    Oct 6
  • 2025
    Oct 3
  • 2026
    Oct 5

What turns here

  • Yellow birch
  • Mountain ash
  • Red spruce (evergreen)

Weather notes

  • The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
  • Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.

Plan around it

Green

Hike

Alum Cave Trail

11 miles round trip, the color-band tour of the park. Arch Rock and Inspiration Point are the photo stops.

Hike

Rainbow Falls Trail

Longer, quieter, and the lower half holds color a week after the summit drops.

Where to stay

LeConte Lodge

Books a year ahead - but cancellations open up. Sunrise from Myrtle Point during peak is the trip of a lifetime.

Plan a trip around thisAlert me before peak here