Little River Gorge
1,700 ft · 39 days of observations
Predicted peak
Thursday, October 29
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 11Webcam: 39
Accuracy
Did we get the peak right?
As October runs, we date the real peak week at each location from canopy instruments, camera vision and visitor reports, then score our own forecast against it.
Season
Mean error
Not yet
0 locations confirmed so far
Within 3 days
Not yet
Predicted peak inside the observed peak week
Bias
Not yet
Needs confirmed peaks
Vs. historical average
Not yet
Error if we had just used the long-run median peak
A peak is only scored once the observed curve crests and falls back at least 7 percent - until then a location reads as still climbing. Data as of Friday, October 9.
Still climbing
Cataloochee Valley
2,650 ft · 35 days of observations
Predicted peak
Friday, October 23
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 10Webcam: 34
Foothills Parkway West
2,100 ft · 33 days of observations
Predicted peak
Saturday, October 31
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 8Webcam: 33
Newfound Gap
5,046 ft · 33 days of observations
Predicted peak
Sunday, October 11
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 7Webcam: 33
Kuwohi (Clingmans Dome)
6,643 ft · 28 days of observations
Predicted peak
Sunday, October 4
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedWebcam: 28
Townsend & Little River
1,050 ft · 11 days of observations
Predicted peak
Monday, November 2
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 11
Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail
2,600 ft · 11 days of observations
Predicted peak
Sunday, October 25
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 11
Pigeon Forge
1,010 ft · 10 days of observations
Predicted peak
Tuesday, November 3
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 10
Wears Valley
1,400 ft · 10 days of observations
Predicted peak
Saturday, October 31
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 10
Cades Cove
1,800 ft · 10 days of observations
Predicted peak
Friday, October 30
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 10
Chimney Tops Overlooks
3,400 ft · 9 days of observations
Predicted peak
Saturday, October 17
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 9
Gatlinburg
1,289 ft · 8 days of observations
Predicted peak
Friday, November 6
Observed peak week
Sep 28 to Oct 4
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 8Instrument crest Oct 7 to Oct 13 shifted 5 days earlier to match visual peak
Mount LeConte
6,593 ft · 6 days of observations
Predicted peak
Monday, October 5
Observed peak week
Not yet
Difference
Pending confirmation
PredictedObservedGreenness: 6
Where the observations come from
NEON Twin Creeks canopy tower
Deciduous cove-hardwood canopy just inside the park above Gatlinburg.
1,932 ft · latest Jul 18 2026
Purchase Knob high meadow
High-elevation North Carolina hardwoods. Archive series, retired after 2021.
5,085 ft · no data stored yet · archive through 2021
Look Rock ridge
Western Smokies crest from the Foothills Parkway. Archive series, retired after 2021.
2,628 ft · no data stored yet · archive through 2021
Canopy stations publish a daily green and red chromatic coordinate from calibrated imagery, the same signal phenology researchers use to date autumn. We add park webcam vision readings, approved visitor photos, and moderated visitor reports.
Report what you saw
Dated visitor reports are reviewed, then folded into the observed curve above. They are the fastest way to score a location the cameras do not cover.
Sign in to submit a report.