Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail
A one-way, 5.5-mile loop that starts two minutes from downtown Gatlinburg. Old-growth hemlock, rushing water, and log cabins under sugar maples: the highest photo density per mile in the region.
When do the leaves peak at Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail?
Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail sits at 2,600 ft, and this year the model puts peak color around Sunday, October 25, with a likely window of Oct 21 to Oct 30. The long-run median peak here is Oct 26, so conditions are running on schedule. Today the canopy reads 32/100 (Summer green), and the peak window opens in 12 days. Drive time from Gatlinburg is about 5 minutes.
Color today · Oct 9
32/100
Patchy color starting
Summer green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Oct 25
Window Oct 21 to Oct 30
Historical median
Oct 26
-1.0 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
97% model confidence · Very confident
Expected vibrancy
36/100 · Dull
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail is running 1.0 day early compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -1.0d
- Daytime temperature
- +3.1°F
- Rainfall
- 55% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
2.9 in observed · 5.3 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.44 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Oct 26. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Oct 24
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 2 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysNo warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.
Next three weeks here
Tap any day to see what to expect. Use the buttons to jump ahead a week at a time.
Friday, October 9
Color 32/100 · Summer green · 0% chance of peak
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2021Oct 29
- 2022Oct 24
- 2023Oct 30
- 2024Oct 27
- 2025Oct 23
- 2026Oct 25
What turns here
- Sugar maple
- Red maple
- Tulip poplar
- Sourwood
- Hemlock
Weather notes
- Running 3.1°F warmer than this location's measured normal, which pushes peak later.
- Rainfall is running 3.4" behind what the canopy has transpired away, so trees are drawing down soil water.
- Satellite canopy is holding green longer than expected: peak pushed 1.5 days later.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
Summer greenScenic drive
The motor nature trail itself
One-way, narrow, no buses or trailers. Go at 8am or you will sit in traffic.
Hike
Grotto Falls
2.6 miles round trip through hemlock to the only waterfall you can walk behind.
Photography
Ephraim Bales Place
Log cabin with maple canopy overhead: best in soft overcast light, not midday sun.
Photography
Place of a Thousand Drips
End of the loop, long-exposure water against wet color.