Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail
A one-way, 5.5-mile loop that starts two minutes from downtown Gatlinburg. Old-growth hemlock, rushing water, and log cabins under sugar maples - the highest photo density per mile in the region.
Color today · Aug 25
4/100
Still green
Canopy is summer green with only scattered early turners.
Predicted peak
Oct 26
Window Oct 22 – Oct 31
Historical median
Oct 26
-0.1 day weather shift
Peak probability today
0%
78% model confidence
Expected vibrancy
68/100
0 cold nights, 0 frosts logged
This location vs. its own normal year
Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail is running on schedule compared with its own ten-year day-by-day climate record from the ERA5-Land reanalysis, downscaled to this elevation.
- Timing shift
- -0.1d
- Daytime temperature
- +0.8°F
- Rainfall
- 243% of normal
- Cold nights logged
- 0
Peak pulled earlier
Warmer than normal here
14.9 in observed · 6.2 in typical
Nights below 45°F · air dryness 1.42 kPa
How far to trust this
Strong evidenceForecast-grade through Sep 10. After that the curve is this location's historical average, not a prediction of this year's weather.
- Numerical weather forecast through Sep 8
- Cloud-free satellite canopy scene 4 days old
- Timing corrected against 15 scored past seasons
Leaf-drop risk
Next 14 daysNo warnings or leaf-stripping weather in the window. Color that arrives should hold.
Next three weeks here
Aug 25
Aug 26
Aug 27
Aug 28
Aug 29
Aug 30
Aug 31
Sep 1
Sep 2
Sep 3
Sep 4
Sep 5
Sep 6
Sep 7
Sep 8
Sep 9
Sep 10
Sep 11
Sep 12
Sep 13
Sep 14
Peak dates, recent years
How this year's prediction compares with observed peaks here.
- 2021Oct 29
- 2022Oct 24
- 2023Oct 30
- 2024Oct 27
- 2025Oct 23
- 2026Oct 26
What turns here
- Sugar maple
- Red maple
- Tulip poplar
- Sourwood
- Hemlock
Weather notes
- The fall season has not started yet, so timing is on the historical baseline. Weather adjustments begin once September observations accumulate.
- Past seasons scored here ran 0.1 days earlier than the model expected, so that correction is applied.
Plan around it
GreenScenic drive
The motor nature trail itself
One-way, narrow, no buses or trailers. Go at 8am or you will sit in traffic.
Hike
Grotto Falls
2.6 miles round trip through hemlock to the only waterfall you can walk behind.
Photography
Ephraim Bales Place
Log cabin with maple canopy overhead - best in soft overcast light, not midday sun.
Photography
Place of a Thousand Drips
End of the loop, long-exposure water against wet color.